Auction market > Wine Forums - THE Wine Forum - On VinoCellar.com

Home

Wine Forums

Wine Education

Wine Links

Wine Videos

Wine Search

Help

Friday, September 05, 2008

You are here : Wine Forums

VinoCellar.com Wine Forums

Unanswered Active Topics

Forums Search

Forums > 100% Wine Related Discussions - No Exceptions > Wine Commerce

Subject: Auction market

Prev Next

You are not authorized to post a reply.

Author

Messages

Randy Wigginton User is Offline

Wine Connoisseur
Posts:5510

07/04/2008 3:24 PM
Spent some time this morning looking at winebid and winecommune, since I have wine I want to sell. Man, prices are depressed and so am I now. I mean, Kistler chardonnays for $45/bottle closing price? 2002 Bressler sold for $61, and the 2003 closed at $43? Wow, I knew things had slowed down, but this is shocking. Anyone else notice the same?

Eric White User is Offline

San Ramon, CA

Advanced Sommelier
Posts:9247

07/04/2008 4:25 PM
It all depends on the wine. Kistler Chards have been out of favor on the auction markets for quite some time. Bressler has never been a secondary market performer (not that I care, I buy the wine to drink!). However, hot wines are still VERY strong, First Growths have gone off the charts. Likewiise for Scarecrow. I even made a small profit on my '04 Levy Mcclellan. With the new WA scores out Quilceda Creek ('05) is again on the rise and garnering a healthy profit. It's all about what's hot...

Randy Wigginton User is Offline

Wine Connoisseur
Posts:5510

07/05/2008 9:39 AM
I'm not sure I agree with you Eric. Of course, some wines will still sell no matter what, but the market as a whole is so soft I am shocked. In the current Winebid auction ending tomorrow night, there are 262 lots in the central coast section; 219 have no bid. In the Napa Valley lots, there are 3184 listed, and 2781 have no bid. And yes, I understand that last minute bidding is common on winebid, but even so, the current sell through rates (15% central coast, 12% napa) are abysmal. But I'm sure some will claim that it is primarily California wines hurting. If I look at French wines with a score from Mr Bob himself of 95 points or higher, we have 329 lots of which 265 are uncontested, a sell through rate of roughly 20%. This indicates that Bordeaux is not much stronger than California wines. No one else has noticed this? Aren't wineries becoming concerned about selling through? I am passing on Kistler for the first time in years, I will be passing on far more mailers than I'm buying from... Time to resurrect the mailer thread...

mountainman User is Offline

Mammoth Mountain

Wine Bottler
Posts:3163

07/05/2008 3:27 PM
I've still got a dozen bottles lingering on Winebid without bids for the last month. I myself have curtailed most auction buying. There will also be minimal mailer purchases this Fall. Personally, I realized that I own too much wine!

Randy Wigginton User is Offline

Wine Connoisseur
Posts:5510

07/06/2008 7:57 PM
Even Sine Qua Non is not selling on the auction market, and in my view it is one of the last remaining cults. Looks like I'll be drinking through my inventory... Could be worse

Eric White User is Offline

San Ramon, CA

Advanced Sommelier
Posts:9247

07/09/2008 5:43 PM
SQN is definitely selling, as are the other wines I mentioned (particularly Bordeaux). However, it seems to me many people have gone nuts with their reserves, setting them high in the hopes of a catch, but more often than not getting no bids whatsoever. If you didn't already know this, on WineBid if the lot has no "estimate" range listed, then that seller has chosen a price higher than Winebid's estimated range for that particular wine. I'm seeing more lots with no estimate range listed than ever before, people attempting to price their wines above (sometimes well above) the market.

love_cab_chard User is Offline

Master of Wine
Posts:12497

07/09/2008 7:09 PM
What do we expect? The Stock Market down 20% & today entered Bear territory. Economy is in the dumps. Job Losses galore & food prices are out of hand. Dollar is a worthless currency. Housing, we know about housing the last 2 years. And, a little thing called - oil/gas prices.

Randy Wigginton User is Offline

Wine Connoisseur
Posts:5510

07/11/2008 10:30 AM
Eric -- A lot of those "crazy reserves" are people asking for prices that were prevalent in the not so distant past. If you subscribe to Wine Spectator, check out the auction price index. As an example, the average price of 2002 Araujo has gone from $361 to $280 between Q3'07 and Q1'08. I agree with LCC... and I don't see prices recovering any time soon...

JimmyV

Central Connecticut

Wine Connoisseur
Posts:5110

07/11/2008 11:36 AM
When one has to shift significant portions of the household budget allocations over to home heating oil, gasoline and food from other sources, $150 bottles of wine are the first things to go. The next thing to go is $125 bottles of wine. Then the $100 bottles of wine. Unless wineries start aggressively marketing overseas, they are going to take a beating as long as they insist on raising prices in this economy. The plummeting auction market should be a warning sign for any winery that thinks this is a good time to bump their bottle cost up to $145 from $110. This isn't going to turn around any time soon. And in the case of gasoline and home heating oil, it may never turn around. $4.00 is the new $2.00. And it's here to stay.

Beta testing a new signature.

David Niederauer User is Offline

Los Gatos, CA

Master Sommelier
Posts:15756

07/20/2008 2:00 PM
You got it Jimmy V. The price of gasoline is directly related. Pretty much all "luxury" items are way off. My business life goes back to 1960 and I don't think I've ever seen it this "bad" before. My conpany's volume is way off but we hold on because our market share has gone up a lot. It's my guess that at least 50% of of the auction market is from Japan and now China too. I believe these people are mostly interested in the "cult status" of a wine hence the "regular" stuff doesn't get the auction action. To them it seems like the whole world is "on sale". Be patient. Be optimistic. The economy will bounce back. Right now you have to settle for less. If you choose to wait most of the stuff will be worth a lot more because it has some more age on it. If you want to be pessimistic about something think about how much more income taxes you may be paying in 2009. Then none of us is going to want to buy any wine at any price.

You are not authorized to post a reply.

Forums > 100% Wine Related Discussions - No Exceptions > Wine Commerce > Auction market

ActiveForums 3.7