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David Niederauer
Los Gatos, CA
Master Sommelier
Posts:15756
 | | 10/16/2007 4:26 PM |
| It was only a few years ago that we thought a Napa Cab for $100 was expensive. It seems that those days are gone. Now it seems those Napa Cabs under $100 are the "bargain" bottles.  Thank goodness for the Bresslers, Neals, Anomalys, and Matchs out there who make very good wines still under $100.
As these bottle prices climb how many $100+ Cabs does one need in one's cellar? And how far apart are the answers if we substitute the word "need" with the word "want"?Â
My question is only about Napa Cabs. I think that is probably the wine that is the majority of purchases by members here. Lord knows what the answer would be if we talked about these $1000 Bordeauxs or Burgundys. And CA Pinots haven't hit the price points that Cab has (yet) so let's just concentrate on CA Cabernet Sauvignon and its propriatary blends.
What are your thoughts on the following questons?:
How many $100-$200 bottles of Napa Cab do you think you should have in your cellar?Â
Which wines in this catagory do you get offered? Which ones do you think you will purchase?Â
Is there a wine that you aren't offered but would like to be able to buy?Â
In 2007 will the number of these Cabs you purchase be more or less that it was in 2006?Â
Any particular reason why?
Same question $201-$300.
Same question $301 plus.
Who buys all the Opus and Silver Oak wines? Are there any of the new wines out there that you think will fall into that catagory?Â
=======================
Personally I have cut way back on Cab purchases. For one thing my "taste" swung over to the Pinot side five or six years ago. At first I continued purchasing Cabs but now it is down to just a handful and falling off rapidly.
I am astounded when I actually look at the list of wines I "always" purchased but don't buy today.
Harlan, Bond, Colgin, Vineyard 29, Shafer, Dalla Valle, Aroujo, Bryant, Venge, Abreu, Togni, Hourglass, Pahlmeyer, Diamond Creek, Phelps, Grace, Spottswoode, Schrader, (not to mention Quilceda Creek, Ridge and Peter Michael that aren't from Napa).
Then there are a whole bunch of these upstart labels like Merus, HDV, Sloan and the like that I have never purchased.
Wines I will continue to buy are:
(under $100) Bressler, Anomaly, Match, Karl Lawrence, Switchback Ridge and Gemstone, and (over $100) HL and Screaming Eagle. I'll also buy the smaller offerings like Rivers-Marie and Selene. I think this list includes very high quality stuff that doesn't break any bank (except for the Screagle that will "pay for itself").
On the cusp are Foley, Jones, and Pride.
I can't think of any Cabs that I want to purchase but can't.
One thing that you must keep in mind is that a big part of my decision process to drop so many wines is... I have over 1000 bottles of Napa Cab "good stuff" in the cellar now. I probably have enough to last at least another 20 years (at which time I'll be 85 years old).ÂWe gotta figure out a way to drink this stuff!
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| JimmyV
Central Connecticut
Wine Connoisseur
Posts:5107
| | 10/16/2007 4:49 PM |
| I spent quite a bit of time soul-searching and combing through Cellar Tracker to determine just how many bottles of "super premium" Cab I need/want. How many times a year do I prepare a meal that cries out for a $200 Cab? How many dinner parties do I host attended by people who would truly appreciate the difference between a $200 Cab and a $75 Cab? More importantly, do I appreciate the difference? How many of these $200 Cabs are all fluff and stuffing, and how many are really a demonstrable upgrade from what I buy for under $100? (Mostly the same as David's list...Bressler, Drinkward, Jones, Match, Anomaly on occassion, Switchback when I can get it from a board member...)
When tossing this all in the blender, what I come up with is:
1.)Â I have yet to have a $225 bottle of Cab that I would prefer over 3 Bresslers;
2.)Â We eat so much "non-red meat" at home that big time Cabs aren't my go-to wines;
3.) When I do prepare a nice meal that screams out for a Cab, often the nuances of what makes a super premium Cab a super premium Cab get lost;
4.) I rarely have guests over that would recognize the "big names", and more importantly, don't care. Odds are, the $40-$80 wine I serve them is their Wine of the Month.
Bottom line is that if I buy a super premium bottle of Cab, it is probably an insurance policy for being invited to, and getting in the door of a high-end off-line. That is a terrible reason to pay that kind of money. Not because I don't like you guys. But if my flashing smile, KB's and Auberts can't get me in the door, then screwyou! 
Anyone want my Futo allocation?? I won't think less of you. We all have reasons for buying $200 bottles. I just can't come up with one for this wine at the moment. All inquiries will be kept confidential. ;) | |
Beta testing a new signature. | |
| David Niederauer
Los Gatos, CA
Master Sommelier
Posts:15756
| | 10/16/2007 5:00 PM |
| It was reading the Futo thread that prompted this post.
JimmyV... some of your post is LOL stuff but you are 110% right on the money (so to speak) in my opinion.
Who are these $200+ wines going to get sold to? | | | |
| wineismylife
Arlington, TX
Master of Wine
Posts:12246
| | 10/16/2007 5:03 PM |
| How many $100-$200 bottles of Napa Cab do you think you should have in your cellar?�
None
Which wines in this catagory do you get offered?
None
Which ones do you think you will purchase?�
None
Is there a wine that you aren't offered but would like to be able to buy?�
Nope
In 2007 will the number of these Cabs you purchase be more or less that it was in 2006?�
Less
Any particular reason why?
Got too many now.
Same question $201-$300.
Ditto
Same question $301 plus.
Tritto
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Joe
-----
Wine is like potato chips around me...if it's open, it's gone. | |
| Winetex
Austin, Texas
Master of Wine
Posts:10777
| | 10/16/2007 5:10 PM |
| As usual Jimmyv nails the issues. Jimmyv, your KBs and Auberts will get you in our door, no worries.
Answers to David's questions (these are predictable...):
How many $100-$200 bottles of Napa Cab do you think you should have in your cellar?�
As few as possible
Which wines in this category do you get offered?Â
About the only one I still remain interested in is Shafer Hillside Select and that's waning
Which ones do you think you will purchase?�ÂShafer HSS
Is there a wine that you aren't offered but would like to be able to buy?�ÂNone at all
In 2007 will the number of these Cabs you purchase be more or less that it was in 2006?� Less
Any particular reason why?ÂI have too much Quilceda Creek that is good drinking and good resale if need be
Jimmyv's points about food are pretty interesting: Cabs just don't go with the lighter food (non red-meat) I try to make on a regular basis. And when they do do I need the $200 cab? Not really.
There are wines that I will still spend $$$ on but USA cabs aren't going to be in the running.
Now hopefully our palates don't change... | | | |
| David Niederauer
Los Gatos, CA
Master Sommelier
Posts:15756
| | 10/16/2007 5:19 PM |
| WIML,
``````````````````
Rather jejune and candid. Exactly what I would expect from you. I capisce!
(Capisce:Â that's either Italian or "Computer Architecture for Production Information Systems in a Competitive Environment")
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| JimmyV
Central Connecticut
Wine Connoisseur
Posts:5107
| | 10/16/2007 5:21 PM |
| Posted By David Niederauer on 10/16/2007 5:00 PM
Who are these $200+ wines going to get sold to?
The problem is that the people on the list have the ability to create their own market. Especially for an untested wine. This is unlike almost any other commodity. If there are 500 people on the active list, and 700 more on the waiting list, then one of two things can happen. In a perfect market, the people who don't want the wine will pass and a wait-list person will move up. The wait-list person gets the wine at release cost. But if all 500 people on the active list conspire to take their allocations, they would do two things. First, they would create the impression that the wine is worth buying. "Wow. It sold out in 2 days. It must be fantastic!". Second, they increase the anticipation of those on the wait list. "Boy. I wish I was one of the lucky ones." Next thing you know, $600 three-pack is selling at auction for $900. You have 700 wait list people as potential buyers and countless others (like sommeliers looking to stock their wine towers in Vegas) looking to get in on the action. So the "who buys this" question is probably best answered by guessing flippers who can probably get their money back without any diffficulty, and perhaps glean a little profit as well. Of course, this only works if the list members create their own market by buying. If too much stuff filters down to the wait list, there won't be enough hungry alligators to bite at the chicken. | |
Beta testing a new signature. | |
| Randy Wigginton
Wine Connoisseur
Posts:5494
| | 10/16/2007 5:22 PM |
| | I f*ing hate this BB software. Another long post that just disappeared into the ether. Well, I guess my post wasn't that important. | | | |
| mountainman
Mammoth Mountain
Wine Bottler
Posts:3158
| | 10/16/2007 5:25 PM |
| | The only $100+ Napa cabernets I still (or will) buy are Shafer HSS and Sloan IF they do not go to $300+. | | | |
| jaimetown
DC area
Wine Bottler
Posts:3488
| | 10/16/2007 5:27 PM |
| How many $100-$200 bottles of Napa Cab do you think you should have in your cellar?
- maybe a handful
Which wines in this category do you get offered? Which ones do you think you will purchase?
- I think Paul Hobbs single vineyards are the only ones that I'm still on the list for
Is there a wine that you aren't offered but would like to be able to buy?
- nope
In 2007 will the number of these Cabs you purchase be more or less that it was in 2006?
- my days of buying $100+ cabs are over
Any particular reason why?
- I think the only wines I have the easiest time spending close to $100+ are vintage champagnes. They are the only category of wines that do not have a wine of equal substitution value at a different price point. | | | |
| Randy Wigginton
Wine Connoisseur
Posts:5494
| | 10/16/2007 9:37 PM |
| | David - how many $300 Syrah's do you need? | | | |
| Drew
Sammamish, WA
Wine Bottler
Posts:3181
| | 10/16/2007 10:17 PM |
| | $80 zins made me drop Turley. That, and I'm just not enjoying it as much. I'm passing on Futo, I passed on Harlan. Going long on Rochioli and will probably start buying Quilceda Creek. | | | |
| hudamang
CALI
Grape Sorter
Posts:212
| | 10/16/2007 10:35 PM |
| Dave, thanks for posting this thread. Great one!
How many $100-$200 bottles of Napa Cab do you think you should have in your cellar?�
It's fun to see them in the cellar but I don't need any. I'm quite happy with my sub $100 cab. In fact, when I find a Cab I like for less than $20, it's even better.
Which wines in this catagory do you get offered? Which ones do you think you will purchase?�
I got offered David Arthur, Bond, LM, Harlan, FUTO...passed/passing on all of them
Is there a wine that you aren't offered but would like to be able to buy?�
I would like to buy them all if I could but my name is Zhi and not William Gates. I would like to one day own a bottle of Screagle but that's some expensive stuff. I'll rather take my wife out on a nice weekend trip.
In 2007 will the number of these Cabs you purchase be more or less that it was in 2006?�
Any particular reason why? Less cause it's so expensive. However, I might buy some 07 vintage stuff since that's my wedding year but I hope the prices don't keep going up by 25% or more each year. That's some crazy shiet.
Same question $201-$300: Why do that when I can get 96 Krug for the same price!
Same question $301 plus. I spend months asking myself if I should get an Iphone. Iphone is better than a bottle of wine.
Who buys all the Opus and Silver Oak wines? Are there any of the new wines out there that you think will fall into that catagory?�
I did when I first started out. I think Insignia is starting to fall into this catagory. Maybe not but the prices keep going up.
WHEN'S THE NEXT DUMP? I'll buy stuff at dump prices!! | | | |
| tgenn
Pleasanton, Ca.
Grape Stomper
Posts:170
| | 10/17/2007 12:36 AM |
| David
I love all varietals of wine, but unfortunately cabernet is still my favorite. The price escalation on these wines has been hard to believe. The bad news is that many of the cabs I have been buying have priced themselves into a "very special occasions only" category. The good news is that I totally agree with you that there are still plenty of cabernets for less than $100 (and another bunch that go for about $110 like the Karl Lawrence reserves) that are truly excellent.
$100-$200 wines
If I didn't already have more wine than I SHOULD have in every category, I would be able to actually walk around in my cellar. But my inflation has stretched up into this category for some wines. From your list, I think Karl Lawrence Reserve, Pride Reserve, Foley, and Insignia are worth the $110 price, Schrader is worth the $95 price, and Togni is worth the $75 price it can be found at. I did drop Bond, Dalla Valle, Hourglass, and Peter Michael when they got too pricy. At $200, Shafer HSS Select is trying to sneak out of this category, but the wine is as good as any in great vintages.
$200+ wines.
It is hard to let go of magical wines like Harlan and Screaming Eagle, but it certainly takes a VERY special occasion to pop a $500 bottle of wine. So you don't need very many. The growing list of other wines between $200 and $500 are getting even harder to justify. Most of these wineries don't even let you visit or pickup the wine (adding further cost, and subjecting your huge investment to the dreaded UPS trucks). I don't think most people need very many of these at all - and if you look on Winebid or Wine Commune you will see these selling for less than the winery price (except when someone gives it 98-100 points).
The only lists I am not on in the cab category that I would like to be on are Switchback Ridge, Shafer HSS, and Quilceda Creek.
I will buy less of these wines in 2007 than 2006 because of escalating prices and diminishing cellar space.
I am not sure exactly what you mean by the Opus and Silver Oak question. To me they fit the category of easy to understand, young drinking , popular restaurant wines. I would put Caymus (regular) in this category as well. Opus has always been a stunning example of what good marketing can do, as the price has always been high. Silver Oak was my original favorite cabernet in the 80's. That was when they made 10,000 cases and charged $35. Today at 125,000 cases it is not the same wine. It is when I see these wines on a restaurant wine list at $150 that I really cringe. But if your question was will there be new wines fitting the category of affordable, and easy to drink - yes, I certainly hope so. There is a market for them. (One good trend is that wineries are being more selective about what goes into their premium blend, and are selling the barrels that didn't make the cut at affordable prices) | | | |
| Vine
Milwaukee, WI
Grape Fermenter
Posts:676
| | 10/17/2007 1:01 AM |
| | JimmyV did nail this one. Personally, I only buy Quilceda and Merus (I know Quilceda isn't Napa but the price is most certainly going to keep climbing). I will probably continue to buy Pride in hopes we'll see more vintages in the '01/'02 mold. As for the Opus/Silver Oak question, I have to say that both brands are still prevalent on most "upscale" wine lists...maybe they still sell purely because of the premium brand recognition both have worked for years to build. In fact, W & S always lists Silver Oak Alexander as one of the top selling restaurant Cab's year-in and year-out. But really, back to the question at hand, LIFE is more important for me than $150+ bottles of Napa Cab. I LOVE wine but until my tax bracket moves up again I need to try and stay grounded...and man, it's getting tough! | | | |
| gotapex
Grape Picker
Posts:8
| | 10/17/2007 1:05 AM |
| I don't have a lot number wise, but percentage wise it's pretty high. Looking at it by the glass, I think it's very hard to justify. Though I love cabs more than anything else, a $200 bottle still comes out to $50 per (relatively large) glass. $50 is more than many good meals. When we factor tax, shipping, the expense/time/risk of cellaring, etc, the real cost really gets up there.
The only one I'll probably continue to scrape the money together for is Shafer Hillside. I have an unnatural love for them that's probably bordering on neurosis. Alas, I'm not even on the list, and have only been able to get them through the kindness of some of the people on the boards, as well as the odd bottle from merchants. | | | |
| David Niederauer
Los Gatos, CA
Master Sommelier
Posts:15756
| | 10/17/2007 3:47 AM |
| Posted By Randy Wigginton on 10/16/2007 9:37 PM
David - how many $300 Syrah's do you need? Randy,
Are you talking mailing-list or secondary market prices?
Mailing-list above $300 in my cellar is just one unit;Â a Mag of JFTLOI.
Now secondary market stuff I don't think I have anything that high but there are quite a few SQN bottles that exceed the $200 price point.
What's this got to do with the price of tea in China? 
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| ChillyWino
Barrel Racker
Posts:1700
| | 10/17/2007 8:29 AM |
| 1. As these bottle prices climb how many $100+ Cabs does one need in one's cellar?
You don't need any.Â
2. How many $100-$200 bottles of Napa Cab do you think you should have in your cellar?
You should have as many as you want and can afford. I enjoy popping a special wine on occasion, but I'm finding that Cabs are no longer my "special" go to wines. For example the night I proposed to my wife I opened a 1995 Lokoya Mt. Veder. Lately we've been opening Pinots and Rhones.
3. Which wines in this catagory do you get offered? Which ones do you think you will purchase?
Only offered Bond, Levy & McClean, and Futo. I'm not purchasing any for my cellar, although Futo did cross my mind for other reasons.
4. Is there a wine that you aren't offered but would like to be able to buy?
At one point it would have been SHS, but no more.
5. In 2007 will the number of these Cabs you purchase be more or less that it was in 2006?
Definately less. CA & Or Pinots, Rhones, and now Burgs are taking more of my $$$$.
6. Any particular reason why?
Tastes are changing
7. a. Same question $201-$300, b. Same question $301 plus?
Same answers
Who
buys all the Opus and Silver Oak wines? Are there any of the new wines
out there that you think will fall into that catagory?
The 1st wow wine I had was a 1996 Opus. I ordered it because as novice wino the name carried a prestige with it(at least in my eyes at the time). If it's still being gobbled up then I assume it's probably the same people. Also a lot of people have no clue about a majority of the mailing list only wines, so to them Opus and Silver Oak are "THE" wines to have.
I remember about 5-6 years ago $50 was my cut off. We went up to Napa and printed a WS list of 90+ point cabsunder $50.  We narrowed it down to 5-6 and went to visit the wineries and buy some bottles. Today I have a feeling that list would be virtually empty. Even 2 years ago $75 was my price cut off, which caused me to drop one of my 2 favorite Cabs(Bressler). I'm thinking it's now a relative bargain.Â
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| Bob Bressler
Napa Valley
Wine Lover
Posts:4858
| | 10/18/2007 11:53 AM |
| This is pretty much in line with my belief that there are two distinct, although overlapping, markets - collectors and consumers. For small producers, you have the opportunity to make a choice for your prime target market. Someone from the collector camp might wonder about this thread. After all, why have cabs worth less than $300? A waste of space.
From a P&L point of view, the collector market is seductive. The problem, of course, is sustainability. Once you have chosen that course, it is hard to change. Then if your ratings plummet or TCA is discovered in the winery or something.... | | | |
| love_cab_chard
Master of Wine
Posts:12485
| | 10/18/2007 12:04 PM |
| | Over $300, I only have the Ringlands. | | | |
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