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Friday, September 05, 2008

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love_cab_chard User is Offline

Master of Wine
Posts:12497

01/28/2005 9:02 PM
Warren Buffet made $630,000,000 dollars today with the Gillette sale to P&G. How much did you make today??? Damn. Wow.

Robert Prosperino User is Offline

Brewster, NY

Barrel Sampler
Posts:2483

01/28/2005 9:21 PM
my mom has owned Gilette for 5 years, today's move up gets her to almost what she paid for it in 1999, hopefully the P&G stock will do better over the next 5 years

ChangeMe

Master of Wine
Posts:12891

01/29/2005 6:59 AM
not nearly as much, but my wife's company's stock went up about $36 in the last year. can you say ka-ching

Dr_Tannin

Barrel Sampler
Posts:2498

01/29/2005 3:15 PM
Over the last few months, I have sold 10% of my US equity portfolio. Whether by luck or good judgment, last year my portfolio beat the indices by more than 10%, something that has not happened in quite a while. Of course, the definition of good judgment is... having the experience of making enough bad judgments to realize not to go there anymore I have been buying commodities over the last 12 months. Recent readings of inflation are at 4.5%. Most equities will tread water, but some with modest activity abroad will do will. Some techs may do well, but all will now face the harsh reality of reporting stock option expenses. Two scenarios are ... The dollar deflates further, foreign investors pull out, bond yields rise, lender rates rise with everything from mortgages to business loans to credit card rates up, stressing families' money, forcing the housing bubble to burst. Companies with a lot of international business will do well, but most US and small businesses and regular working families won't. Unemployment rises and 80's style recession recurs. The dollar stabilizes, foreign investors stay, the economy hums along at a low level, but companies keep wages low and reinvest in capital and pay down debt, productivity is forced higher stressing families time, as markets tread water with dividend production providing most of the upside. Recession is staved off, bond yields stabilize to reasonable levels, but the recovery is slow and stretched out. Employment stays up and late 80's early 90's stagnation keeps things at current levels So the key is the growth of the Asian economy and their attitude to our products and status of their currency evaluation. Seems like now has never been a better time than to invest in commodities, energy, and basic industry abroad. Maybe I finally understand this stuff. Not.

Pool Boy

Laurl, MD (DC suburb)

Master of Wine
Posts:13711

01/29/2005 7:58 PM
Quote: The dollar deflates further, foreign investors pull out, bond yields rise, lender rates rise with everything from mortgages to business loans to credit card rates up, stressing families' money, forcing the housing bubble to burst. Companies with a lot of international business will do well, but most US and small businesses and regular working families won't. Unemployment rises and 80's style recession recurs. This is the more likely scenario, Dr. T, unfortunately. That said, the mortgage rates have continued to drop for the past several months (I've been watching since we're still toying with the idea of trading up) and there seems to be no end in sight. Still, I err on the side of caution. My 401k money in my old company did extremely well in Q4 2004, in the middle of transferring it to my rollover plan. Got any more tips, Dr. T??

www.roguefood.com -- www.cellartracker.com

ChangeMe

Grape Sorter
Posts:267

01/30/2005 3:47 AM
All I know is that I hope all of you keep buying IPODs because that stock has made my wine purchases less painful over the last few months.

GATC

Barrel Sampler
Posts:2420

02/08/2005 9:12 PM
DrT, you comments are logical, but that is usually a warning sign for me. I'm a contrarian in many ways, but it is useful when it comes to investments.

Dr_Tannin

Barrel Sampler
Posts:2498

02/09/2005 2:33 AM
GATC- I'm trying to be contrarian, but all the experts are touting tech and other stocks. They're saying 2005 should be a decent year with a fair 1st and very good 2nd half. That's why I'm ignoring them. These people are all self enriching panderers. I worked on Wall Street. Believe nothing of what you hear and half what you see. The time to not be contrarian, however, is when large macroscopic economic forces are logical. If countries are constructing cars, buildings, factories...they need energy and commodities. Even if you're a little off, there is still billions in growth and demand. Further, for 100 years, dividends have formed the bulk of equity market growth. With too many stocks now trading in the stratosphere, and baby boomers reaching the age where gambling with retirement accounts is not made up by wages and benefits, and national payouts are overpowering pay ins, inflation and price depreciation seems a given. Dividends, now favored in the tax code as well, will be important as a stop gap when the drop occurs. One thing that has been obvious, and not only in retrospect, are the large drops and rises in the market, based on simple macroeconomics. Over the short term anything goes but in the long term common sense prevails do commonly. Timing is occasionally off by months or sometimes years, but the fall in 2000-2001 was really quite obviously time to get out as was that in 1973. I went from 85% stocks in mid 1999 to 25% by mid 2000 because companies with no profits and burning cash flow had doubling of price gains and well respected investors like Sanborn etc and Robertson, were fired or quit. The most insipid vapid internet related garbage commanded market caps of Merck and General Motors. And it was everywhere. When 20 somethings who put in no dues were making hundreds of thousands a year from nothing, and spending as much, you know you walked into the asylum. When the asylum is taken over by inmates, it's time to get out [or become one like them]. For the same reasons, I want an antistock now if you will. Traditionally, that has been real estate [or REITs]. That bubble is a now a virgin in a fraternity. Bonds make no realistic sense now since they are not safe. International equities have traditionally run countercurrent. But in an ever global economy, nowless so than before. The only other antistocks [short of shorting] are commodities and energy. Bingo. I'll have my misses to be sure, but over the last 23 years of self investing, I think I've learned a trick or two. Let's hope I am not wrong.

GATC

Barrel Sampler
Posts:2420

02/09/2005 7:47 PM
The stock market fascinates me because it is a complex system that includes people who use highly mathimatical models as well as people who use psychology. Right now, I'm going to listen to the Audio-Tech Business Book Summary of "Mean Markets and Lizard Brains, How to Profit from the Science of Irrationality". I find the emotional and irrational aspect interesting since I studied the rational models (i.e. the original portfolio theory in my MBA program, which was more math and statistics than anything else). I also enjoyed the presentation by a Charles Schwab executive on the "Stock Clock", which actually modeled the emotional aspects of the market. That I would high recommend for people interested in that subject.

love_cab_chard User is Offline

Master of Wine
Posts:12497

03/15/2005 5:43 PM
Sometimes there is justice in this world, YES!!! He can rot in hell as far as I am concerned.

love_cab_chard User is Offline

Master of Wine
Posts:12497

04/15/2005 3:43 PM
Any one else feeling pain lately?!? Portfolio down 10% in the last 3 weeks. And, expecting even more pain & stress on the portfolio/savings to come... On the bright side, will be looking to buy/add...

JimmyV

Central Connecticut

Wine Connoisseur
Posts:5112

04/15/2005 3:51 PM
My guess is that ShorttheWorld is feeling no pain!

Beta testing a new signature.

juggernt

Tampa, FL, USA

Wine Bottler
Posts:3420

04/17/2005 5:33 PM
I'm afraid to look...

Visit The Butcher Block at http://www.butcherblocktampa.com/

ChangeMe

Barrel Sampler
Posts:2042

04/17/2005 5:49 PM
This last week was particularly ugly for my portfolio.

love_cab_chard User is Offline

Master of Wine
Posts:12497

01/21/2006 3:00 AM
ouch!

love_cab_chard User is Offline

Master of Wine
Posts:12497

01/15/2008 11:49 AM
Any one loosing their shirt (& pants) lately. :-)

Al_ksyrah

Barrel Filler
Posts:1046

01/15/2008 12:05 PM
More like a couple of socks, but I think they'll turn up again. -Al

Budman

Master of Wine
Posts:11877

01/15/2008 12:08 PM
They usually do!!!

tanglenet

Oakland, California

Wine Bottler
Posts:3214

01/15/2008 3:36 PM
Right now it's "death by a thousand cuts", a slow bleed

TN posted on Cellartracker "I drink no more than a sponge." François Rabelais www.tanglenet.com

DukeRiley

McMinnville, OR

Barrel Sampler
Posts:2000

01/16/2008 11:46 AM
I became very worried about the economy a couple years ago (working at World Savings gave me some ugly insights into the mortgage world), and I pulled everything out of the stock market. I missed the move up and I'm missing the move down. I'm really enjoying investing in my own business - if I have a management issue, I have no one to blame but myself!

Heater Allen Brewing www.heaterallen.com

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